By: The Editorial Board – wsj.com – November 4, 2024

Migration from blue states to battlegrounds could tilt the Electoral College from Harris.

Population shifts in the 2010s reduced Democrats’ advantage in the Electoral College after the post-2020 Census reapportionment. California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia each lost a vote. Meanwhile, Texas picked up two while Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon each added one.

As a result, Kamala Harris starts the count with a built-in lead that’s three votes smaller than Joe Biden’s in 2020. This means there are more pathways for Mr. Trump to win the necessary 270 electoral votes, assuming the same battleground states of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Mr. Trump could reach 270 with Georgia, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Those states would have won him only 268 in 2020. Winning Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan and Wisconsin would give him 272 versus 269 in 2020. He could also get to 272 with Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia and Wisconsin. Those same states would have pulled him one vote short of 270 in 2020.

If Ms. Harris loses in such a scenario, Democrats can blame progressives in Sacramento, Albany and Springfield for driving an exodus to red states with their ever-higher taxes and cost of living. Millions of Americans have voted with their pocket book as Democrats who run one-party states have entrenched their power and made it hard to correct policy.

Migration from progressive to swing states since the 2020 election could also influence the outcome. About 700,000 Americans on net have moved to Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin from other states between 2020 and 2023, according to Census Bureau data released last month.

Republicans fear that blue state migrants will liberalize the politics of red states, but many are fleeing high taxes and the social and economic consequences of progressive policies. Flight from blue states is one reason Florida has become solidly Republican. The state has also had a strong and effective GOP governors.

Florida is now home to 1.6 million native New Yorkers—three times the number of Puerto Ricans—which doesn’t include folks who moved to the Empire State at some point in their lives and then left. Droves of New Yorkers have also moved to North Carolina (60,000) and Georgia (28,000) since 2020. It’s hard to predict how they will vote.

Many are college-educated suburbanites who dislike both Mr. Trump’s character and the left’s cultural excesses. This no doubt is also true of many of the 44,000 or so who have moved to Wisconsin from Illinois since 2020. Mr. Biden won the Badger State by fewer than 21,000 votes, so this year’s race could hinge in part on how newcomers vote.

Ditto Arizona and Nevada, which have gained roughly 120,000 and 94,000 residents from California, respectively, since 2020. The two states seem to be trending more Republican than four years ago. Hispanics have moved to the GOP, but California escapees may also be moving the two states to the right. Native Californians make up 10% of Arizona’s and 20% of Nevada’s population.

It’s possible the polls will be wrong again this year and one of the two candidates will win a more convincing victory. But if the election is close, and Mr. Trump wins Arizona and Nevada, he might thank California Gov. Gavin Newsom.

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Source: Could California Elect Donald Trump? – WSJ