The Republican presidential campaign and the first Republican presidential debate have shown that many Americans don’t seem to value previous political experience in choosing a candidate. Donald Trump has been leading in the polls for weeks. Not only has he never served in political office, this is the first time he has even run for political office.
After the first presidential debates, some wondered if some Americans would change their minds about the candidates. They did, but not in a way that many pundits predicted. A poll taken after the debate showed that of the 17 participants, the top 5 were all people who had never run a state government or a federal agency.
We shouldn’t take polls taken this early too seriously. Eight years ago, the leading Republican candidate in the polls was Rudy Giuliani. Second was Fred Thompson. Candidates rise and fall long before the first caucus or primary.
Still the phenomenon before us is interesting, and perhaps troubling. Americans generally favor someone with administrative experience as a governor. Think of who we have elected as president in the last eighty years: Governor Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Governor Jimmy Carter, Governor Ronald Reagan, Governor Bill Clinton, and Governor George W. Bush. Add to that others who were nominated but not elected: Governor Michael Dukakis and Governor Mitt Romney.
This is an unusual year in which non-politicians like Donald Trump, Ben Carson, and Carly Fiorina are some of the most popular candidates along with senators like Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. Few governors have made it into the top tier.
At the moment, the polls illustrate the Republican voters dislike of the political establishment rather than a desire for someone with previous administrative experience. It remains to be seen whether they will later give some of the governors a second look.