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A New Cold War?

russian military - ukraine border
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By: The Editorial Board – wsj.com – February 22, 2022

‘Who in the Lord’s name does Putin think gives him the right to declare new so-called countries?” President Biden asked Tuesday in announcing new sanctions against Russia. The answer is a complacent West, which has failed to impose serious costs despite more than a decade of Russian aggression.

At least the Administration overcame its initial to call ’s deployment of troops in Eastern Ukraine an “invasion.” Mr. Biden on Tuesday it “the beginning of a Russian invasion,” and he responded with what he said was the beginning of greater sanctions.

The White House bet seems to be that sanctions restraint will cause Mr. Putin to settle for holding the regions his forces now occupy and forgoing an assault on Kyiv. But the Russian has never been deterred before by Western restraint, and he may see this as more weakness. Mr. Putin responds only to strength, and the West still isn’t showing enough.

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Mr. Biden said the U.S. will impose full blocking sanctions on a Russian military bank and VEB, the state development corporation. It is also cutting off Moscow from Western financing through sanctions on Russian sovereign debt. But the fine print in the Treasury Tuesday said the ban applies only to debt issued by Russia after March 1. It appears previously issued debt can still trade in secondary markets.

All Russian financial institutions deserve to be cut off from the outside world, and their dollar transactions restricted, until Russia withdraws from Ukrainian territory. The new sanctions on Russian elites look weak in targeting Putin cronies already on the sanctions list, though their sons are newly designated.

The Europeans also settled for tougher talk but weak sanctions. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced sanctions on five Russian banks and three wealthy Russians, but the oligarchs and four of the five institutions were previously targeted by the U.S. Treasury.

Mr. Johnson says these are only “the first tranche, the first barrage.” Every name on the Navalny 35—a list of Russian elites compiled by dissident Alexei Navalny’s anticorruption organization—ought to face sanctions. “Londongrad” has outsize importance as the preferred destination for Russian oligarchs stashing wealth abroad.

The most encouraging surprise came from Germany, which said it is halting the certification for Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline for now. Better late than never. But that suggests there’s an opening to let the pipeline proceed if Mr. Putin doesn’t swallow all of Ukraine.

The bigger question is whether Europe will now get serious about its energy security. “We are still too dependent on Russian gas,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen tweeted, in the understatement of the decade. “We have to strategically diversify our suppliers and massively invest in renewables.”

But putting too much hope in unreliable wind and solar energy is what has left Europe so vulnerable to Russian gas. It needs more nuclear power as France is pursuing, and more imported U.S. liquefied natural gas.

The latter also depends on Mr. Biden encouraging more U.S. production and exports, which means ending his Administration’s political war on fossil fuels. This would have the added benefit of reducing the increase in U.S. energy prices, which is hurting Mr. Biden and the Democrats politically.

Democrats should also join Republicans in Congress in voting to impose sanctions now. Forty-four Senate Democrats opposed Ted Cruz’s recent bill to impose sanctions on Nord Stream 2 before an invasion, but the invasion has happened.

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Mr. Biden wasn’t specific about further military aid for Ukraine, and we hope that’s merely for public consumption. The U.S. and allies should be airlifting antitank, anti-aircraft and other weapons to impose a higher cost on Mr. Putin if he attempts to take more territory. The U.S. should also be sending small arms, explosives and communication equipment for an insurgency if Mr. Putin attempts to occupy Ukraine or set up a puppet government. That will be more difficult if Russian troops control Ukraine’s entire border.

At this late date nothing may stop Mr. Putin’s desire for conquest. But the mistake the West has made for more than a decade is to think the Russian autocrat can be a reasonable geopolitical partner. He doesn’t want to be part of the current international order. He wants to blow it up. It’s depressing to have to say this, but Cold War II is here.

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Source: With Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine, a New Cold War Arrives – WSJ