Connect with Point of View   to get exclusive commentary and updates

A Word About the Polls

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Everyone today is freaking out about a poll from Monmouth University that purports to show Donald Trump getting 41% of the Republican vote. There’s a lot to note about exactly how garbage this poll is. It is so bad that Monmouth’s own polling director is basically disavowing it. If you are interested in a relatively robust writeup of the methodological problems with the poll itself, which are primarily driven by the insane method Monmouth used to select their sample, you can check this Politico writeup here.

That having been said, we pretend that any of the other polls are more accurate at our own peril. During the course of this race it is has been a regular phenomenon that polls taken within 2-3 days of each other, purporting to evaluate the exact same voting sample, measure Trump’s level of support in particular wildly outside the margin of error of each other. As an example, this NBC/WSJ poll taken almost the same exact days shows Trump’s support at 27 nationally. In the last two weeks, five other national polls have been conducted, many with overlapping days, showing Trump’s support ranging from 24-36%.

Nor is this a recent phenomenon. In late November, ABC/WaPo and Bloomberg conducted polls on the same days – one showed Trump at 32%, the other at 24%.


Source: Leon H. Source, http://www.redstate.com