This morning, the Washington Post’s James Hohmann made perhaps the Left’s single-strongest argument for confirming President Obama’s imminent Supreme Court nominee — obstructionism could cost the GOP its Senate majority. Hohmann argues that McConnell’s vow to block Obama’s pick is a “bold and understandable gambit,” but he claims it could “backfire badly.” Here’s how: Assuming the president picks a Hispanic, African American, or Asian American — bonus points if she’s a woman — this could be exactly what Democrats need to re-activate the Obama coalition that fueled his victories in 2008 and 2012. Even if he does not go with a minority candidate, the cases on the docket will galvanize voters who are traditionally less likely to turn out.

Assuming the president picks a Hispanic, African American, or Asian American — bonus points if she’s a woman — this could be exactly what Democrats need to re-activate the Obama coalition that fueled his victories in 2008 and 2012. Even if he does not go with a minority candidate, the cases on the docket will galvanize voters who are traditionally less likely to turn out.

Expect this argument to be amplified again and again. The media will hammer Republicans, the Left will enlist its entire, lavishly-funded grassroots army to press for a vote, and each and every Republican who even thinks about breaking ranks will be hailed for their “integrity” and “courage” by every left-leaning publication across the land. In other words, all the elements are present for a classic Republican cave — identity politics, astroturf agitation, and the media-industrial complex have proven time and again that they can trump the will of GOP voters. But if the Republican Senate hands control of one branch of government to the Democrats — during a presidential election, no less — it not only won’t save its majority, it will likely hammer the final nail in the GOP’s coffin. Given all the advantages the GOP brings to this fight, the Republican party would richly deserve its painful death.

It’s far from clear that a Supreme Court nomination battle will motivate an Obama coalition that was dependent largely on Barack Obama’s unique personality and biography. To presume that low-information voters will turn out in equal numbers for old, white Hillary or Bernie because they’re angry that Republicans turned aside the first Asian-American Supreme Court justice strikes me as sheer fantasy. Supreme Court nominations tend to activate the informed base, not the uninformed masses.

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Source: David French, www.nationalreview.com