By: Karl Rove – wsj.com – February 12, 2025

He faces a a series of hard legislative fights, and Congress needs his leadership.

So far, the administration’s strategy of flooding the zone and dominating the news cycle is working. But there’s a warning in the CBS data. Only 31%—roughly the size of his MAGA hard-core base—said Mr. Trump is focusing the “right amount” on “lowering prices.” Two-thirds said it wasn’t enough. That must change, especially after Wednesday’s Labor Department report on January’s rising inflation. Mr. Trump won largely because he promised to fight inflation and strengthen the economy.

The president will face five legislative tests of his ability to improve Americans’ finances in fairly quick order, says G. William Hoagland of the Bipartisan Policy Center. Each congressional fight will deeply affect the stock market, jobs, paychecks and his poll numbers.

First, Washington faces a shutdown on March 14 if Congress doesn’t approve a spending bill for the balance of the 2025 fiscal year or, less ideally, for long enough to allow more negotiations. This takes a simple majority in the House but 60 votes in the Senate, so Democratic support is needed.

Second, the Senate and House must each approve a budget resolution for this fiscal year, followed by a conference of both chambers that agrees on a final budget resolution, which is then passed by simple majorities in the House and Senate.

Third, after the conference committee’s budget resolution has been passed, the House and Senate can take up budget reconciliation. This would allow each chamber to pass legislation by majority vote to extend, and perhaps expand, Mr. Trump’s 2017 tax cuts.

Fourth, Congress must raise the debt ceiling. It hit the current limit of $36.1 trillion on Jan. 21. The Treasury Department is using what are called “extraordinary measures” to avoid breaching this amount. Treasury will exhaust its bag of tricks in late spring or early summer, depending on how plentiful tax receipts are on April 15.

Finally, Congress should be working now on setting the budget and appropriation levels for the 2026 fiscal year. That’s also supposed to be completed by April 15.

It will be hard to get these five items done in a short time frame. Congress is narrowly divided. Republicans hold slim leads in the House (218-215) and the Senate (53-47). It will be tough to get enough Democrats to reach the 60 Senate votes required to fund the government and raise the debt ceiling.

Even passing budget resolutions and reconciliation, which require only simple majorities, will be difficult. House and Senate Republicans disagree, especially on reconciliation. Senate Republicans want two reconciliation measures: one now, focused on border spending and defense, and one later focused on tax cuts. House GOP leaders favor one reconciliation measure. They think bundling all the goodies into one bag makes it easier for members to accept politically unpalatable provisions. Still, House Republicans are deeply divided on these issues, making consensus in that chamber difficult to reach.

Resolving these thorny issues requires Mr. Trump’s intervention. He can’t leave GOP House and Senate leaders to work this out. He must cajole, guide, encourage and persuade them into completing these essential tasks. In other words, he must lead.

The president needs a strategy to settle differences between House and Senate Republican leaders and aides who can help steer the legislature in the right direction. It can’t be done with vinegar. Threatening to rain down hell from MAGA influencers might have nudged controversial nominees through. But that approach won’t resolve thorny budgetary and procedural issues. Mr. Trump must instead use honey, especially where Democratic votes are needed.

His poll numbers alone won’t sway legislators. They’re a new high for Mr. Trump but below where the last four presidents sat after a month in the White House. What really matters now is whether he and his administration have the skills to pass difficult legislation, some of which requires Democratic support. Ultimately Mr. Trump, like every president, will be judged by how well America is doing, particularly economically. That depends at least in part on what happens these next few months.

Donald Trump is off to a good start. But the easy things he’s faced so far are giving way to harder ones. If the president is an adept deal maker and leader, he must prove it soon. Much hangs in the balance, for him and for the country’s economy.

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Source: The Five Trials of Trump 47 – WSJ