Kerby Anderson

The possibility of military confrontation between the US and China seems greater than in the last few decades. What might trigger that confrontation would be military action by China against Taiwan. But the reason for tensions between the US and China and tensions between the US and Russia may be due to reasons most of us have not considered. Andrew Michta is the dean of the College of International and Security Studies at the George S. Marshall European Center for Security Studies and a former professor at the US Naval War College. He believes the current tensions are due to the “conviction in Beijing and Moscow that their power advantage relative to the US and its allies will worsen unless they move soon, making victory increasingly unattainable.” The conventional wisdom has often been that these countries (and especially China) are likely to move militarily because of their perceived strength. He argues that these leaders may conclude they are getting weaker and need to strike now for several reasons. The US military has been focused on counterterrorism and will require time to restructure. Also, the domestic conditions in the US and Europe have been “buffeted by the trifecta of Covid-19; increasingly brazen mass migration” along with cultural issues. A final reason is due to internal pressures “building within Chinese and Russian societies. For both countries, population trends and current projections paint a devastating picture.” Conflict between the US and these two countries is not inevitable. But some military experts wonder if the US might find itself embroiled in a two-front war. We should all hope and pray that does not happen. And that’s even more reason for us to be in fervent prayer for our political and military leaders in this country.