When Greece decided to default on its payment to the International Monetary Fund, there were all sorts of economic commentaries. As accurate as they were, they usually don’t tell the whole story from a demographic perspective. Let me tell that story.

Actually, I could rightly say, let me retell that story. Some of my commentaries five years ago were predicting these events when you look at the fertility rate and the welfare state.  The national fertility rate in Greece is 1.3 children per woman. Demographers point out that a country needs a fertility rate of 2.1 to replace its population. That used to be the fertility rate in the U.S., which is now about 1.8.

No matter what policies you implement in Greece, you are faced with the demographic winter that has befallen the country. You can’t provide generous government benefits when you have so many parents and grandparents who need to be supported by a smaller cohort of children. You end up with too few paying into the system while too many are taking from the system.

Fertility is only part of the problem. The generous Greek welfare state is the other, which appears completely disconnected from reality. Columnist Mark Steyn reminds us that originally in the Greek welfare system, you could retire at age 58. More than that, public sector workers often get off work at 2:30 PM. He says that is like working 7-8 months out of a typical American work year. And the Greek system also pays well. Public sector workers receive 14 monthly payments.

When you begin to understand the demographics and finances behind the current Greek tragedy, it is easy to see why this country is facing so many problems. But we can’t as a country say to ourselves: “that is their problem, but it isn’t our problem.” Our fertility rate may be a little higher than theirs, and our finances are in much better shape than theirs. But it might only be a matter of time before we find our country in the same circumstances as Greece. All of this could be a preview of coming attractions.