How many nonprofits will shut their doors because of the pandemic? That is a question some researchers tried to answer by looking at various financial scenarios. They tried to analyze the financial future of the 315,698 US-based nonprofits by considering 20 different scenarios.
As a baseline, they concluded that about four percent would close even in the absence of a COVID-19 crisis. Some degree of turnover is likely for a variety of reasons. Then they concluded that using nine “realistic” scenarios that a median of 11 percent would go out of business. By the way, 11 percent works out to 34,472 nonprofit organizations shutting their doors.
The researchers’ most optimistic scenario would only result in three percent of nonprofits shutting their doors. Their most dire scenario would be a loss of 38 percent and would mean an end of 119,517 nonprofits.
Let me hasten to add that these are scenarios based on limited financial data and a guess about the ability of these nonprofits to weather an uncertain future. One survey concluded that 90 percent of US-based nonprofits already experienced a reduction in revenue by April 2020.
We have seen extraordinary generosity toward organizations and ministries addressing the COVID-19 crisis as well as giving towards organizations dealing with racial issues. A Fidelity Charitable survey also found that 25 percent of donors say they will give more in the future.
In light of all of these facts and figures, I would ask you to consider how you will support your local church and various Christian ministries. These are uncertain financial times, and our donations will help many to survive the COVID-19 crisis.