Kerby Anderson

This election year is certain the bring some significant surprises, and one of those is the possibility of a presidential tie. Dr. Merrill Matthews was on my radio program recently to talk about his article in The Hill.

A presidential candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win. Most people believe that much of the electoral map is already determined. That means that President Joe Biden can be expected to win 226 electoral votes, while former president Donald Trump can be expected to win 219. The remaining 93 electoral votes come from the seven “swing states.”

If Biden won North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona and Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada, both would have 269 electoral votes. Another scenario is if Biden won Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia and Arizona and Trump won Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Michigan, there would be a 269-vote tie. In either case, the House would determine who serves as president, and the Senate would determine who serves as vice-president.

This outcome is less likely because of the very real possibility of “faithless electors.” Most states require their electors to vote for the state’s winner (though there are two states, which can split their vote). Some states (including some swing states) do not have a law prohibiting faithless electors. In that case, one or two electors could decide who would be the next president.

One final point: a third-party candidate could change some of this calculation as well. Independent Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and prospective Green Party candidate Jill Stein will likely affect the vote, especially in some of these “swing states.”

Perhaps you can now see why I say that we may be in for some significant surprises in the election year.