Have you noticed that many of these political polls are way off? Jeffrey Blehar warns, “Don’t Fall for Fake Polls.” The senate race in Michigan ended up being very close. The governor’s race in Wisconsin was completely reversed from the predictions. He provides evidence that many of the primary polls weren’t just inaccurate but fraudulent. His article is linked to my commentary, if you would like to read it.

Not only should we ignore fraudulent polls, but we should also question many of the polls done by reputable polling organizations. Here’s the problem.

Let’s first look at the statistical issues. A typical three-day poll of 1000 people if proportioned among the 3000 counties can accurately represent American adults 19 out of 20 times within 3-5 percentage points.

Statistics isn’t the issue. Polling the right people is the issue. It is difficult to estimate how many people will vote in a primary, and that is also somewhat difficult to estimate who will vote in the midterm general election.

Getting the right percentage of people to answer a poll is difficult because most Americans do not answer a phone call from a number they don’t know. Even when they are on the phone call, they may be tempted to answer the way they think the pollster wants.

Then there is what is called the “Bradley effect.” Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley was an African American who lost in 1982 despite being ahead in the polls. Many voters said they were undecided or would vote for Bradley because they didn’t want to say they weren’t voting for the black candidate. That may also explain the 2016 presidential election results since many voters might have been reluctant to say they weren’t voting for Hillary Clinton as the first woman president.

The only poll that matters takes place in November.