Kerby Anderson

When I first started writing this commentary nearly two decades ago, the average woman in the United States had 2.1 children in her lifetime. This is what many demographers called “the golden number.” To sustain a population in any country, women on average need to produce 2.1 children. If that number is higher, the population increases. If that number is lower, the population decreases.

Years later, Lou Dobbs devoted an entire chapter in his book, Upheaval, to the subject of “Demographics and Destiny Disturbed.” He was on my radio program back then and talked about the fact that the fertility rate in America had now declined to about 1.7. He also lamented the abortions of over 60 million unborn.

But if you think America is facing a problem, consider Japan with a fertility rate of 1.39. It is imploding. By the end of this century, Japan’s population will be less than half of its current population. Japanese consumers are buying more adult diapers than baby diapers.

Other countries also face incredible challenges because of declining fertility rates. Greece has a fertility rate (1.4) equal to Japan’s fertility rate. Spain’s fertility rate is 1.12. The fertility rate of South Korea and of China is also 1.12.

China’s “one-child policy” meant “that as many as 400 million Chinese children were not born.” By the end of the century, the country will likely have about one-third of the population that it has now. It moved from a one-child policy in 2015 to a three-child policy in 2021. But the birth rate continues to fall.

Declining fertility rates illustrate once again that demography is destiny.