Kerby Anderson

William Galston is a fellow at the Brookings Institute and served in the Clinton Administration as the Deputy Assistant to President Clinton. He wrote about “The Great American Baby Shortage.” What he wrote is true, but there is more to the story.

He reminds us that: “To maintain a stable population, women need to give birth to 2.1 children on average during their lifetimes.” Unfortunately, that replacement rate has fallen to a record low.

At first, this means there will be less demand for childcare and fewer students in grade school. Over time, it means there will be a diminishing number of young adults to finance healthcare and retirement for an expanding elderly population.

One reason for population decline is fewer marriages. Between 1960 and 1980 only about six percent of US 40-year-olds had never been married. Today, one-quarter of 40-year-olds have never married.

Ingrid Jacques, writing in USA Today, discloses another factor: political perspective. She says, “Liberals Aren’t Having Kids, Conservatives Are.” The trend can be seen in a report from the Institute for Family Studies. And she quotes from Professor Brad Wilcox at the University of Virginia.

He believes the difference is due to the inability among liberals and progressives to embrace marriage and family. He doesn’t believe family should be a partisan or ideological issue, but it seems to be the reason for this growing divide.

In previous commentaries, I have talked about the fertility gap between liberals and conservatives as well as the fertility gap between Christians and secularists. If the trend continues, there will be more young adults in the world who came from conservative homes and Christian homes than the rest of the population.