Kerby Anderson

Michael Lewis begins his book, The Big Short with this quote from Leo Tolstoy. “The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him.” He used the quote to illustrate why most on Wall Street did not see the 2008 crash coming.

I thought about the quote when I heard that JPMorgan Chase will allow institutional clients to use Bitcoin as collateral for loans. For years, Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said Bitcoin is no different from pet rocks and is only valuable to scammers and money launderers.

On a recent TV interview, Larry Fink of Blackrock talked about his change of heart on Bitcoin. Once he dismissed it as merely for money launderers. Now, he brags about the fact that the Blackrock’s Bitcoin ETF is the most successful in history.

They aren’t the only leaders who had difficulty seeing into the future. Ken Olson, founder of Digital Equipment, said in 1977 that, “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” Steve Ballmer of Microsoft supposedly said in 2007 that “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share.”

Trying to predict the future is difficult, so a little humility might be in order. My latest book, Discerning the Future: Christian Perspective on Contemporary Challenges, is my attempt to “understand the times” (1 Chronicles 12:32) and read the signs of the time” (Matthew16:3). Time will tell how well I do.