What does the future hold? Will Iran obtain a nuclear arsenal? If so, when? Will it become a “game changer?” If so, how will things change?

“Predicting is hazardous, especially about the future,” says a quote attributed to various wise men. But prediction is essential to policy choices, despite the hazards of making a mistake. Some predictive mistakes, however, are more costly than others.

President Obama is staking this deal on a series of predictions—“bets,” “rolls of the dice” and “faith”—that include the following:

• Under the deal, Iran is less likely than without a deal to develop a nuclear arsenal in the short, medium, and long term;
• Under the deal, the Iranian regime is more likely to become part of the community of nations and to change its status from an outlaw nation that tyrannizes its own people, exports terrorism, hegemonizes its Arab neighbors, and threatens to annihilate Israel;
• War in the Middle East is less likely under the deal than without it.

There are other unintended consequences that, though unpredictable, may flow directly or indirectly from the deal. They include the following:

• New alliances may form in the Middle East. It was predicted that Saudi Arabia may have to become closer to Israel because of their common enemy. But the opposite may result as well: seeing the handwriting on the wall, and sensing the growing strength of Iran and the shrinking influence of the U.S., Saudi Arabia may begin to hedge its bets by moving closer to Iran.

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Source: Alan Dershowitz, http://www.newsweek.com