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November 5, 2021
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Behind the Numbers of Virginia’s Gubernatorial Election

Governor-elect Glenn Youngkin of Virginia
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By: Brian McGill & Chad Day – wsj.com – November 3, 2021

Survey results of Virginia voters indicate that Republican businessman Glenn Youngkin beat former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe by peeling away key voter groups that a year ago favored President Biden.

The economy and jobs were at the top of mind in an electorate where a slight majority disapprove of the president and an even larger group feel the country is headed in the wrong direction. The political newcomer also appeared to strike the right tone by accepting former President Donald Trump’s endorsement but not campaigning alongside him. Mr. Trump lost the state by 10 percentage points last year.

Here are some of the key takeaways with final numbers released Wednesday from AP VoteCast, a survey taken from Oct. 27 through Election Day of 2,655 registered voters.

A Youngkin Coalition

College-educated white men, people from small towns and rural areas and older voters made up key parts of Mr. Youngkin’s winning coalition. Notably, Mr. Youngkin had a slight edge with college-educated white voters, a group that favored Mr. Biden by 11 percentage points in last year’s VoteCast survey.

Overall, Mr. Youngkin won among white voters in the state by a much higher spread than Mr. Trump’s six-point margin with that group last year. The survey also suggests that Latino voters favored Mr. Youngkin over Mr. McAuliffe, though the sample size of the group was much smaller than for white and Black voters.

BY GENDER

 

McAuliffe V. Youngkin

Men – 47% of total vote

45%  V. 55%

Women – 52% of total vote

52% V. 47%

BY RACE

White – 73% of total vote

59% V. 40%

Black – 16% of total vote

88% V. 12%

Hispanic or Latino – 5% of total vote

43% V. 55%

Other – 6% of total vote

47% V. 52%

BY AGE

Ages 18-29 – 13% of total vote

52% V. 46%

Ages 30-44 – 23% of total vote

58% V. 41%

Ages 45-64 – 37% of total vote

46% V. 54%

Age 65 or older – 27% of total vote

43% V. 57%

WHITE VOTERS BY EDUCATION AND GENDER

Men with a college degree – 19% of total vote

46% V. 54%

Men without a college degree 17% of total vote

30% V. 70%

Women with a college degree – 16% of total vote

55% V. 44%

Women without a college degree – 21% of total vote

31% V. 68%

The Economy Is King

More than a third of Virginia voters said the economy and jobs were the most important issues in the state as the U.S. faces higher inflation and employers are fiercely competing for workers in a tight job market.

Notably, the Covid-19 pandemic, which was the top issue in the state in the 2020 election survey, was second. Education, which Mr. Youngkin put at the center of his campaign in the final weeks leading up to Election Day, was third, topping healthcare.

WHAT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE FACING VIRGINIA?

 

The economy and jobs – 35%

Coronavirus – 17%

Education – 15%

Health care – 7%

Climate change – 7%

Abortion – 5%

Immigration – 5%

Racism – 5%

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Source: Behind the Numbers of the Virginia Gubernatorial Election – WSJ