By: Scott Wong & Mike Lillis – thehill.com – August 9, 2018

The magic number of seats Democrats need to hit to win back the House majority is 23. But in reality, it’s almost certainly a much smaller number.

Several GOP-held seats are seemingly already in the bag, meaning Democrats likely need to take a smaller number of competitive seats — perhaps as few as 15 — to return to the majority for the first time since 2010.

It’s all making Republicans nervous — even before Tuesday’s special election in Ohio, where a Republican candidate appears to have just scraped by in a district that has been in GOP hands since 1983 and that President Trump won two years ago by 11 points.

“I don’t think there is necessarily a blue wave, but what concerns me is suburban districts in New Jersey, Philadelphia, New York, Illinois and California — those are not good for us,” said one House Republican from a blue state.
“Educated women, young people independents — they are energized. I clearly think [Democrats] have enough to win over 24 seats.”

Democrats, for their part, are taking nothing for granted, saying it’s well too soon to divert resources from any districts.

“The biggest strategic challenge [Democrats] have will come in September and October when they’ve got to make a decision whether some races are now in the safe column and they can divert resources to lean-Republican races,” said former Rep. Steve Israel (D-N.Y.).

“It’s way too early to make those decisions,” added Israel, who led the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) from 2011 to 2014.

According to campaign prognosticators, the GOP seats most likely to flip are held by three retiring Republicans.

The first, a New Jersey seat being vacated by longtime Rep. Frank LoBiondo, has a GOP nominee seen as exceptionally weak. The House GOP’s campaign arm rescinded its support after reports that the nominee had shared racist articles on social media. The Cook Political Report rates it as “likely Democratic.”

Cook also lists seats being vacated by GOP Reps. Pat Meehan and Ryan Costello in Pennsylvania as “likely Democratic.” Both Republicans saw their districts redrawn in favor of Democrats in a gerrymandering court case this year.

Four more seats are listed by both Cook and Sabato’s Crystal Ball of the University of Virginia, another handicapper, as “leaning Democratic.” All were won by Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016.

The four GOP seats are held by Reps. Barbara Comstock, who represents a blue-tinged Northern Virginia district outside of D.C.; Martha McSally (Ariz.), who’s running for the Senate; and retiring longtime Reps. Ileana Ros Lehtinen (R-Fla.) and Darrell Issa (R-Calif.).

The three other GOP seats listed by Cook as “leaning Democrat” are in New Jersey, where Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen is retiring, and in Pennsylvania, where the redistricting decision is adding to the GOP’s problems.

One open seat in Pennsylvania now held by Democrats is rated as “likely Republican” because of the redrawn districts.

The Ohio race, coming on the heels of Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb’s March victory in a deep-red Pennsylvania district, has Democrats believing the battlefield is expanding quickly in their favor.

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Source: Dems eyeing smaller magic number for House majority