By Zogby – zogbyanalytics.com – December 29, 2019

The president’s numbers remain solid: 50% at least somewhat approve of his job as president and 48% at least somewhat disapprove; 2% were not sure.

Trump is doing well and winning back support with important swing voters: Independents (42% at least somewhat approve/52% at least somewhat disapprove), Hispanics (45% at least somewhat approve/55% at least somewhat disapprove) and women (44% at least somewhat approve/53% at least somewhat disapprove).

The president’s job approval numbers were strong in the Central/Great Lakes (50% at least somewhat approve/48% at least somewhat disapprove) and the south (56% at least somewhat approve/42% at least somewhat disapprove) compared with voters in the east (45% at least somewhat approve/53% at least somewhat disapprove) and the west (46% at least somewhat approve/53% at least somewhat disapprove). When it came to the household income of voters, Trump does best with high net worth voters earning > $100k (59% at least somewhat approve/40% at least somewhat disapprove).

Nearly half (49%) of voters in large and small cities at least somewhat approved of Trump. His numbers are steady in the suburbs as 46% at least somewhat approve and 52% at least somewhat disapprove.

The president’s job approval numbers are very good with consumers: NASCAR fans (67% at least somewhat approve/32% at least somewhat disapprove), weekly Walmart shoppers (58% at least somewhat approve/41% at least somewhat disapprove), weekly Amazon shoppers (60% at least somewhat approve/40% at least somewhat disapprove).

As has been the case for the past few months in our polling, Trump performs well with the most vulnerable voters-lost a job (65% at least somewhat approve/33% at least somewhat disapprove); afraid of losing a job (52% at least somewhat approve/45% at least somewhat disapprove); at a job that pays less (52% at least somewhat approve/47% at least somewhat disapprove) and gone without food for 24 hours (57% at least somewhat approve/44% at least somewhat disapprove).

The president also scored well with Millennials (51% at least somewhat approve/47% at least somewhat disapprove) and Generation X (56% at least somewhat approve/42% at least somewhat disapprove), which represent sub-groups who have majorities who at least somewhat approve of president.

The president continues to perform well with religious voters; he has over 50% approval with Catholic men (57% at least somewhat approve/39% at least somewhat disapprove) and Catholic women (52% at least somewhat approve/45% at least somewhat disapprove). In another trend that has continued for months in Zogby polling, the president’s numbers hover near 60% approval with urban men (58% at least somewhat approve/42% at least somewhat disapprove) and urban parents (60% at least somewhat approve/40% at least somewhat disapprove).

The president also does well with the 25-34 (53% at least somewhat approve/45% at least somewhat disapprove) age group. If his job approval ratings continue to do this well with this age cohort, he will be hard to beat in the 2020 general election.

The president did not get a good job approval rating with important sub-groups he needs to win re-election: suburban women (41% at least somewhat approve/56% at least somewhat disapprove). The president’s numbers are also down with the youngest voters age 18-24 (25% at least somewhat approve/73% at least somewhat disapprove) and age 18-29 (36% at least somewhat approve/61% at least somewhat disapprove).

2020 Horse races

Trump vs. Biden

Trump continues to edge out Biden within the margin of error, 46% to 45%. When matched-up against the former vice president, Trump is doing well with voters age 25+ (Trump leads 49% to 42%) and age 30+ (Trump leads 50% to 42%).

Joe Biden received decent support from women voters (Biden leads 48% to 39%) and the youngest voters age 18-24 (Biden leads 65% to 18%) and age 18-29 (Biden leads 57% to 29%). Not surprisingly, Biden polls well with minority voters; he leads with Hispanics (53% to 34%) and African Americans (77% to 14%). At 14% among African American voters, Trump is doing better than the 8% he received from blacks in 2016 presidential election.

Overall, the race is very close between Biden and Trump among important demographics. They are tied within the margin of error among Millennials-born between 1980-1995-Trump leads 45% to 44%; suburban voters (Biden leads 46% to 44%), and small city voters (Trump leads 46% to 45%).

Among the important swing voters the race continues to be a see saw: Trump is winning with Independents (Trump leads 41% to 40%), consumer blocs-NASCAR fans (Trump leads 59% to 34%), weekly Walmart shoppers (Trump leads 52% to 37%), weekly Amazon shoppers (Trump leads 51% to 45%) and the most vulnerable voters-lost a job (Trump leads 52% to 38%), afraid of losing a job (both at 46%), at a job that pays less (Trump leads 48% to 42%), gone without food for 24 hours (Trump leads 47% to 43%). Biden is also beating Trump with suburban women (Biden 47% to 40%), who will factor in big in the 2020 presidential election.

Trump vs. Sanders

In a potential general election showdown, between populist heavy weights, President Trump narrowly beats Sanders 47% to 45%. To no one’s surprise Senator Bernie Sanders (VT-I) beats Trump with the youngest voters- age 18-34 (Sanders leads 53% to 37%). Trump does better with voters age 35+ and age 30+ (Trump leads 51% to 43%). What could potentially hurt Trump is Sanders’ well standing relationship with Independent voters (Sanders leads Trump 46% to 39%).

Sanders is also taking it to Trump with suburban voters (Sanders leads 47% to 45%), small city voters (Sanders leads 49% to 44%) and suburban women (Sanders leads 48% to 42%).

Trump is winning with union voters (Trump leads 48% to 42%) and consumers-NASCAR fans (Trump leads 63% to 32%), weekly Walmart shoppers (Trump leads 54% to 37%), and weekly Amazon shoppers (Trump leads 54% to 43%).

Bernie Sanders continues to perform well with minorities-Hispanics (Sanders leads 54% to 32%) and African Americans (Sanders leads 79% to 16%). Both are tied among voters with no college degrees (both 45%) and in an interesting twist of events, Trump leads with voters who have college degrees (Trump leads 50% to 45%).

Trump vs. Warren

Against the fiery Senator from Massachusetts, the president is leading by 4 percent, 47% to 43%. In a surprising twist, Warren appeals less than Biden and Sanders do to women voters (Warren only leads Trump 46% to 40%), while Trump receives better numbers with men (Trump leads 54% to 40%). Warren has the support of voters age 18-24 (Warren leads 71% to 20%) and age 18-29 (Warren leads 57% to 31%), while Trump leads with voters age 25+ (Trump leads 50% to 40%) and age 30+ (Trump leads 51% to 40%). Warren is doing well with minorities-Hispanics (Warren leads 54% to 33%) and African Americans (Warren leads 74% to 19%). They are virtually tied with voters with no college degrees (Warren leads 44% to 43%) and Trump leads with voters who have college degrees (Trump leads 51% to 42%).

Warren does cut into Trump’s supporter base by slightly beating out the president with small city (Warren leads 48% to 45%) and union voters (Warren leads 45% to 44). She also leads Trump among large city voters (Warren leads 49% to 43%) and is statistically tied with the president among suburban voters (Trump leads 45% to 44%) while winning with suburban women (Warren leads 46% to 41%).

Trump does well with NASCAR fans (Trump leads 59% to 35%), weekly Walmart shoppers (Trump leads 53% to 36%), weekly Amazon shoppers (Trump leads 52% to 42%), and religious voters-Catholics (Trump leads 48% to 43%), Protestants (Trump leads 56% to 34%), and Born Again voters (Trump leads (60% to 33%).

Unlike her rivals, Warren scored well with all the most vulnerable voter groups- lost a job (Trump leads 50% to 44%), afraid of losing a job (Warren leads 46% to 43%), at a job that pays less (Warren leads 49% to 42%), and voters who have gone without food for 24 hours (Warren leads 48% to 46%).

Trump vs. Buttigieg

In a closer than expected race with the Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, Trump beats out Pete Buttigieg 45% to 41%. Buttigieg does not have the advantages of his rivals (Biden, Sanders, and Warren) with younger voters-age 18-24 (Buttigieg leads 51% to 27%), age 18-29 (Buttigieg leads 45% to 32%) and women (Buttigieg leads 42% to 39%). The end result is Trump is in closer races than in other match-ups with these key groups. Considering all the talk about Buttigieg not having support with minorities, his numbers are pretty good against Trump; Buttigieg is leading Trump among Hispanics (Buttigieg leads 51% to 33%) and African American voters (Buttigieg leads 73% to 15%).

Trump is doing well with his base: men (Trump leads 53% to 39%), non-college educated voters (Trump leads 43% to 41%), voters with college degrees (Trump leads 49% to 41%), Independents (Trump leads 39% to 33%), small city voters (Trump leads 45% to 38%) and voters aged 30+ (Trump leads 49% to 40%)

Buttigieg has carved out the centrist lane in the Democratic debates and is doing well with middle class voters whose household income is below $75k annually (Buttigieg leads 45% to 38%) and is just slightly receiving more support than Trump from suburban voters (Buttigieg leads 43% to 42%).

Trump does well with consumers- NASCAR fans (Trump leads 58% to 34%), weekly Walmart shoppers (Trump leads 52% to 32%), weekly Amazon shoppers (Trump leads 51% to 43%) and the most vulnerable voters- lost a job (Trump leads 52% to 36%), afraid of losing a job (Trump leads 45% to 38%), at a job that pays less (Trump leads 43% to 41%), and gone without food for 24 hours (Trump leads 47% to 37%). Despite” not doing all that great with women voters, “Mayor Pete” is beating Trump among suburban women (Buttigieg leads 45% to 36%) and urban women (Buttigieg leads 49% to 31%).

Trump vs. Bloomberg

Billionaire vs. Billionaire is what we are billing this. The former Mayor of New York City has bought his way into the Democratic primary. Overall, Trump and Bloomberg are in a razor thin race, with Trump leading 43% to 42%. Trump does best with voters age 25+ (Trump leads 47% to 41%) and age 30+ (Trump leads 47% to 41%). Bloomberg does well with younger voters-age 18-24 (Bloomberg leads 60% to 24%) and age 18-29 (Bloomberg leads 49% to 34%), Hispanics (Bloomberg leads 55% to 32%), African Americans (Bloomberg leads 73% to 17%) and voters without college degrees (Bloomberg leads 43% to 42%).

In a new trend that has emerged as of late, Trump does best with voters with college degrees (Trump leads 48% to 42%) and voters working fulltime (Trump leads 46% to 42%). He also receives good numbers with his base: men (Trump leads 51% to 40%), consumers-NASCAR fans (Trump leads 56% to 36%), weekly Walmart shoppers (Trump leads 51% to 32%), and among weekly Amazon shoppers, (Trump leads 50% to 44%). Trump loses some steam with union voters when matched against Bloomberg (Trump leads 46% to 39%).

Bloomberg is receiving decent support among swing voters: Independents (Bloomberg leads 39% to 35%), suburban voters (Bloomberg leads 46% to 40%) and suburban women (Bloomberg 48% to 35%). Bloomberg also does well with the most vulnerable voters-lost a job (Trump leads 48% to 45%), afraid of losing a job (Bloomberg leads 43% to 41%), at a job that pays less (Bloomberg leads 44% to 40%), gone without food for 24 hours (both 45%), and performs well with large (Bloomberg leads 52% to 41%) and small city voters (Trump leads 42% to 41%).

Impeachment

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Source: Zogby Analytics – The Zogby Poll®: 2020 Presidential Election Report