During the current climate change conference, we will hear how the nations of the world have to act now to prevent a global disaster. What we won’t hear much about is the cost of implementing these draconian policies. Fortunately, people like Bjorn Lomborg have run the numbers.
He reminds us that the solution put forward by a very vocal minority is that the only “lasting solution” for climate change is: “We must destroy capitalism.” He also reminds us of the significant progress that has been made because of free markets. Life expectancy has doubled, and billions of people have risen out of poverty.
Bjorn Lomborg catalogs the various studies that have been done to estimate the costs of the policies being proposed this week in the climate change conference. The Stanford Energy Modeling Forum estimates that trying to hit some of the carbon reduction targets will reduce GDP by more than $150 billion annually. Estimates for the impact on the European Union are even more significant.
Mexico has put in place some of the strongest climate legislation of any developing country. Peer-reviewed literature suggests the cost would be on the order of $80 billion. China has promised to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions. Using data from the Asia Modeling Exercise, the cost could be at least $200 billion a year.
There is good reason to believe that many of the promises by these countries won’t be kept. But even if they do spend this money and lower their GDP, what will be the impact? Bjorn Lomborg estimates all of this money will merely prevent a total temperate rise of only 0.3 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of this century.
This is a perfect example of a policy that has no bang for lots of bucks. That is why the nations of the world really need to step back and count the costs.