For decades, crime rates have been declining or stagnant. Now there are more men dying in the streets than in previous years. The murder rates in major American cities (like Milwaukee, St. Louis, Baltimore, and Washington) are rising. The number of murders is outpacing the same period last year by quite a bit.

What is different? Progressives say we have too many guns on the street. Inner city youth are settling their scores with guns, so that is why they say we need stricter gun control. The problem with that explanation is that the number of guns in these cities is about the same as it was last year. There is no evidence that there has been a massive influx of new guns in these cities. And many of these cities are in states or the District of Columbia that already have very strict gun control laws.

But if you go back to the short list of cities I just mentioned, you might notice something. Many have been at the center of controversy about a police shooting, and all of them are at the center of the “Black Lives Matter” movement. In these cities, arrest rates are down while murder rates are up.

Police in these cities are walking a careful line. Groups like “Black Lives Matter” condemn aggressive police actions. Police departments are facing major pushback from these activist groups and the mainstream media. Individual police officers think twice before they engage a suspect.

You may have read about a Birmingham police officer that was beaten unconscious during a traffic stop. An angry 34-year-old convicted felon grabbed the detective’s gun and pistol-whipped him until he lost consciousness. While recovering from his injuries in the hospital, the detective said he hesitated to use force because of the post-Ferguson reaction to cops. He said, “I hesitated because I didn’t want to be in the media like I am right now.”

I doubt he is the only police officer that has hesitated. Arrests are down in these cities, and that seems like a more reasonable explanation for the rising murder rate.