By: Paul A. Djupe & Ryan P. Burge – christianitytoday.com – April 30, 2018

The 2016 presidential election heightened an ongoing discussion over the allegiance of American evangelicals to the Republican Party.

As countless articles and social media posts have observed, Donald Trump’s presidency has led many church leaders to warn against a too-warm embrace of politics and politicians, as well as led many Christians to rethink their involvement and identity as evangelicals.

Though these tense conversations may feel like new ground born out of this political moment, long before Trump’s election there was already strong evidence showing that Americans’ political identities and disagreements fuel their religious identities and practices.

In other words, what we’re seeing now comes as no surprise to political scientists.

Recent research from Paul Djupe, Jake Neiheisel, and Anand Sokhey shows that over the last 15 years, people who disagreed with the political leanings of their clergy and congregations were much more likely to start skipping services or stop attending altogether. Their research before and after the 2016 election found that disagreement over Trump in evangelical churches sent a number of members heading for the exits.

In her new book, From Politics to the Pews, University of Pennsylvania professor Michele Margolis argues that partisan identities become fixed in early adulthood, a time when people tend to take a break from religion. When they consider coming back later in their 20s and 30s, they align their religion with their political identity. Typically, Democrats will stay away, and Republicans will select a Republican-aligning church.

So is evangelicalism really losing members due to disagreements over presidential candidates?

Over the past seven years (in 2011, 2012, 2016, and 2017), the Democracy Fund’s Voter Study Group has repeatedly surveyed a panel of 5,000 Americans about a variety of subjects, including their faith. The latest results, released this month, reveal trends in evangelical identity and in church attendance that correspond with voting patterns for the 2016 election.

One in six Americans who voted for Hillary Clinton (16%) had self-identified as evangelical or born again at the beginning of the survey period but had dropped the labels (which overlap) by 2017. Clinton voters were almost twice as likely as Trump voters (9%) to stop identifying as evangelical or born-again Christians.

To see the graph and the remainder of the article, click read more.

Source: Study: Clinton Voters Twice as Likely to Leave Evangelicalism as Trump Voters