By: The Editorial Board – wsj.com – November 7, 2024

The issue did little for their candidates despite broad public support.

Ms. Harris described abortion as a dividing line between the parties, claiming that President Trump and GOP majorities in Congress would enact a national ban. She hoped the threat would motivate progressives to turn out in key states and persuade independents and Republican women to cross over. Democrats spent $175 million on TV ads across the country to hammer the point—more than any other issue.

Yet millions of Americans voted for abortion access while choosing Republicans on the same ballot. Voters more worried about the economy and immigration voted for change in Washington while preserving or expanding abortion access through state ballot measures. Among the 11% who said abortion was their top issue, 29% of them voted for Mr. Trump, according to the AP-Fox VoteCast.

Democratic attacks fell flat in part because Mr. Trump took an early stance against a national ban. He took credit in April for helping to overturn Roe v. Wade, but he said abortion policy should be decided in each state, and he later said he’d veto a national ban. His position let pro-life candidates in state races promise that no ban would happen, even if they supported one personally.

That blunted the issue in federal races. Montanans approved a ballot measure adding abortion rights to their state constitution, and they also tossed out Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, who ran on abortion access. Republican Tim Sheehy defeated the three-term incumbent, who welcomed the ballot measure in the hope that it would provide him an electoral tailwind.

The same split occurred in Florida. Democrats bet that their $118 million campaign on the issue would boost Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Yet 56% of voters chose to re-elect Republican Sen. Rick Scott while 57% voted to repeal a six-week abortion ban, though the ballot measure fell short of the 60% support it needed to pass.

Some Democrats twisted their opponents’ positions in an attempt to increase the stakes. Among the most egregious was New York’s Mondaire Jones, whose supporters ran ads suggesting that Rep. Mike Lawler would ban abortion with no exception for rape, and that he had voted to “put doctors in jail.” Mr. Lawler corrected the record in his own ads and won the suburban swing district by seven points.

Abortion drove less enthusiasm this year than in the 2022 midterms in part because many states have made it more accessible since Roe was overturned that year. Through legislation, the ballot or the courts, 22 states have either expanded access or made it harder to restrict. And despite significant restrictions in 13 states, the number of abortions in the U.S. increased in 2023.

The abortion debate is playing out much as we predicted before Roe fell. Abortion policy would be decided by the people, not judges, though it would take several elections to resolve. The issue’s political salience may fall further in the next two years if Republicans and Mr. Trump show voters they were honest about opposing a national ban.

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Source: Abortion Was a Bust for Democrats – WSJ